This study is a baseline for making future decisions based on mathematical data, and making projections on the progress of COVID-19 in Honduras and other countries in the region.
Since the beginning of the year when news began to emerge about the expansion of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in China, Honduran scientist, Dr. Josué Molina, a professor at Zamorano University, decided to investigate the behavior of the disease based on a mathematical analysis. His projections utilize differential equations and non-linear models on a simplified epidemiological model of the so-called SIR Model that is based on three components: number of Susceptible people (S), number of Infected people (I) and number of Recovered people (R). The resulting projections will help the government increase the speed of preparation for and response to the pandemic.
Dr. Molinas explains: “These models provide the statistics that they have been publishing two or more days earlier. In developed countries like China, Spain and Italy, the number of infected is being given every day, but in Honduras it takes several days. Science gives us the correct information quickly, if we have valid data. This dynamic between science and society must be promoted, now more than ever, ” he commented.
Molinas explains that timely information will give a more precise numbers to facilitate decision-making by government authorities, such as deciding on how to optimize food distribution, the application of COVID-19 tests, or the way in which people can travel. Accurate information can help ensure that the population can survive not just for one or two months, but for a year or two if necessary.
“We have to prepare for an extended period of time in which we are going to be quite limited in mobility and social contact but, it does not mean that we must be completely inactive.
Qe are a living organism, our country is the same. When an organism is attacked by chaos or terror it is paralyzed, and when an organism is paralyzed it dies. We have to make intelligent decisions reached through coherent thinking, ”he argued.
Given this scenario, Dr. Molina’s study will support the development of an action plan, strategic planning and logistics to make consensual decisions based on scientific criteria.
According to Dr. Molina, “this is research that allows us to project ourselves into the past and into the future. Hindsight allows us to avoid the mistakes of other countries, or at least lessens the probability of doing so. Projection into the future helps us to visualize the worst or best of the scenarios for better decision-making.”
Dr. Molina is leading a regional committee for the development of mathematical predictions to support to improve decision-making in the countries of the region. He says: “It is necessary to give voice to science in order to solve our problems; the survival of the species is at stake.”
Read the full investigation here: